The AHI Nowcast publishes a real-time estimate of Australian quarterly CPI before the ABS official release — updated as each monthly observation arrives. Unlike bank forecasts, the full methodology, holdout validation, and error attribution are published transparently.
The platform's monthly-anchored methodology requires at least one ABS Monthly CPI Indicator release within the target quarter before publishing a forecast.
The April 2026 Monthly CPI Indicator releases on 28 May 2026. The Q2 2026 Nowcast will publish at that time.
Acceleration vs deceleration, a harder test than positive vs negative direction
12 quarters (2023-Q1 to 2025-Q4)
2022-Q3 to 2025-Q4
floor
documented separately
see callout below table
| Quarter | AHI Estimate | Actual (ABS) | Error | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-Q3 | +1.888% | +1.838% | +0.050 | ✓ |
| 2022-Q4 | +1.732% | +1.850% | −0.118 | ✓ |
| 2023-Q1 | +1.140% | +1.354% | −0.214 | ✓ |
| 2023-Q2 | +0.802% | +0.858% | −0.056 | ✓ |
| 2023-Q3 | +1.090% | +1.152% | −0.063 | ✓ |
| 2023-Q4 | +0.628% | +0.628% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024-Q1 ‡ | +0.549% | +0.931% | −0.382 | ✓ |
| 2024-Q2 | +0.999% | +1.048% | −0.049 | ✓ |
| 2024-Q3 † | +0.197% | +0.218% | −0.021 | ✓ |
| 2024-Q4 † | +0.155% | +0.197% | −0.041 | ✓ |
| 2025-Q1 | +0.957% | +0.919% | +0.038 | ✓ |
| 2025-Q2 | +0.723% | +0.747% | −0.024 | ✓ |
| 2025-Q3 | +1.317% | +1.321% | −0.003 | ✓ |
| 2025-Q4 | +0.595% | +0.592% | +0.003 | ✓ |
| 2026-Q1 | +1.405% | +1.376% | +0.029 | ✓ |
| Mean abs error — 14Q holdout | 0.076pp | RMSE 0.126pp 0.074pp MAE since 2023 | 15/15 ✓ |
In the first two quarters of 2022 the ABS had not yet launched its Monthly CPI Indicator, meaning no within-quarter observations were available at prediction time. In live operation the platform always has at least one monthly ABS release before publishing a prediction. These quarters therefore represent a prediction mode the platform no longer uses.
For reference, the model's zero-observation predictions for these quarters:
These errors reflect the unprecedented nature of the 2022 global supply chain disruption — the NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index reached 4.3 standard deviations above its long-run mean, a level with no historical precedent. Every major forecasting institution including the RBA, IMF, and Federal Reserve made comparable errors in these quarters. The platform's monthly anchoring architecture — introduced from 2022-Q3 onwards when the ABS launched its Monthly CPI Indicator — directly addresses this limitation.
The AHI Nowcast is an ensemble forecasting model combining multiple regression and time-series techniques, with a gradient-boosted corrective element. Features are selected from monetary policy signals, price momentum indicators, import cost transmission channels, and the AHI stress cycle gap — a proprietary measure of household cost absorption with demonstrated inflationary persistence properties. Calibrated against two decades of international comparable-economy data. Specific model architecture, feature selection, ensemble composition, and training parameters are proprietary.
Monthly CPI anchoring incorporates confirmed ABS Monthly CPI Indicator data as quarters progress. Fuel prices use daily retail pump price data (population-weighted NSW×60%, QLD×40%), replacing wholesale TGP — consistent with the ABS CPI motor fuel methodology. Policy adjustments are applied from the AHI policy calendar (tobacco excise, electricity rebates, PBS changes). The all-in AHI estimate is compared against the ABS official CPI release.
For each holdout quarter the model is re-estimated using only data available prior to the ABS release date — no future data leaks into any prediction. This is equivalent to a realistic live deployment scenario.
The primary holdout covers 14 monthly-anchored quarters (2022-Q3 to 2025-Q4), every quarter the platform operated with at least one confirmed ABS Monthly CPI Indicator release prior to publishing a live forecast. The 2026-Q1 first live prospective forecast was resolved on 29 April 2026 with an absolute error of 0.029pp against the index-derived actual and appears as the final row of the validation table with a subtle visual distinguisher to mark it as a different category from the 14 holdout rows. The two 2022 supply shock quarters, where the ABS Monthly CPI Indicator did not yet exist, are documented separately.