The AHI Nowcast publishes a real-time estimate of Australian quarterly CPI before the ABS official release — updated as each monthly observation arrives. Unlike bank forecasts, the full methodology, holdout validation, and error attribution are published transparently.
The platform's monthly-anchored methodology requires the first two ABS Monthly CPI releases within the target quarter before publishing a forecast.
The next quarter's nowcast will publish once the second monthly CPI release for the quarter has been ingested.
Before each quarterly release we can observe at most two of the quarter's three monthly CPI figures, because the ABS publishes the third month at the same time as the quarterly CPI. These results show what the model would have published before each release, using only the monthly figures available at that point. For each quarter the model is re-estimated on earlier quarters only.
two monthly figures observed
two monthly figures observed
two monthly figures observed
| Monthly CPI observed | Quarters | MAE | RMSE | Bias | Correct sign | Acceleration call | Inside 80% band |
|---|
Each row shows the forecast published on this page before the ABS release, and the ABS outcome.
| Quarter | Published before release | Basis | Actual (ABS) | Error | Acceleration call | Post-release rerun |
|---|
This table runs the same model with all three monthly figures in hand. Those figures arrive at the same time as the quarterly CPI, so this measures how closely the monthly series adds up to the quarterly result. It is not a test of forecasting. Mean absolute error —, root mean square error —. Correct sign in — quarters; acceleration called correctly in —.
| Quarter | AHI Estimate | Actual (ABS) | Error | Acceleration call |
|---|
The 80% band shown with each forecast is a fixed width around the estimate.
In the first two quarters of 2022 the ABS had not yet launched its monthly CPI, so no monthly figures were available and the model ran on its own. These quarters are reported separately from the results above. The platform now publishes a forecast only once two monthly figures for the quarter are in.
The 2022 supply chain disruption had no precedent in the model's training data: the NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index reached 4.3 standard deviations above its long-run mean. Monthly anchoring, available from 2022-Q3 onward, addresses this.
The AHI Nowcast is an ensemble forecasting model combining multiple regression and time-series techniques, with a gradient-boosted corrective element. Features are selected from monetary policy signals, price momentum indicators, import cost transmission channels, and the AHI stress cycle gap — a proprietary measure of household cost absorption with demonstrated inflationary persistence properties. Calibrated against two decades of international comparable-economy data. Specific model architecture, feature selection, ensemble composition, and training parameters are proprietary.
Monthly CPI anchoring incorporates confirmed ABS Monthly CPI Indicator data as quarters progress. Fuel prices use daily retail pump price data (population-weighted NSW×60%, QLD×40%), replacing wholesale TGP — consistent with the ABS CPI motor fuel methodology. Policy adjustments are applied from the AHI policy calendar (tobacco excise, electricity rebates, PBS changes). The all-in AHI estimate is compared against the ABS official CPI release.
For each evaluation quarter the model is re-estimated using only earlier quarters, then run with the monthly CPI figures the ABS had published before that quarter's release: none, the first month, or the first two months. The third month is published together with the quarterly CPI, so it is never available beforehand. The model's inputs are the data as held today rather than the earlier versions available at the time, so these results are a close approximation to real-time accuracy, not an exact replay.
The monthly-to-quarterly reconciliation runs the same model with all three months. It shows how closely the monthly series adds up to the quarterly result, not how well the model forecasts. The 2022 supply shock quarters, before the ABS monthly CPI existed, are reported separately. The evaluation is regenerated from the platform's code and data every week and checked automatically against the published figures.